The application of dynamic risk analysis methods for safety improvement on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic engineering dams

Abstract

A theoretical basis for the analysis of the hazards of industrial systems such as “Man-Machine-Environment system”, including methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis, physical criteria and characteristics of hazard assessment, is proposed on the basis of fuzzy sets. A mathematical model for improving safety on highways located near or on the territory of hydraulic structures dams using the methods of dynamic risk analysis has been proposed. A mathematical model of a fuzzy system, taken as the basis of the method of dynamic risk analysis, is proposed.An approach to the analysis of hazards is proposed, which consists in the fact that risk research and hazard ranking have to be carried out on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic under conditions of strong uncertainty and the presence of a human factor.A methodology for classifying the systems of the “machine” component by hazard classes and the ranking method for the “Man-Machine-Environment system” by degree of danger are proposed on the basis of fuzzy sets. The proposed fuzzy criteria for assessing the risk allow to select the following types of the “Man-Machine-Environment system” ranking: in the presence of a single spectrum of requirements; in the presence of “m” spectra requirements; by the criterion of the total hazard assessment; by the degree of compliance with regulatory requirements; in terms of proximity to various regulatory requirements; by degree of satisfaction with all regulatory requirements.