The analysis of integration processes in post-Soviet space

Abstract

The object of this research is the social, political and economic integration processes in post-Soviet space. The subject of this research is the model of assessment, construction of scenarios and forecast of integration processes. For the analysis, forecasting and assessment of risks of integration processes, the author employs two approaches: 1) usage of methods of the theory of security and mathematical modeling of integration (disintegration) processes of political and socioeconomic actors aimed and increase of their security; 2) assessment of challenges and unfavorable consequences using the paradigm “impossibility – risk – security”. The model of security is based on dichotomy (inextricable connection) of the values of sovereignty (development) and retention, and considers the key factors affecting successful development of the states, trans- and supranational formations: size and ethnic composition of population, interethnic relationship, social indicators of development. The experience of integration processes on the European continent is summarized. It is historically proven that the basis for economic integration consists in the effective mechanisms of political and military integration. The author develops three scenarios of integration in the post-Soviet space: 1) pessimistic, commonwealth of states – insurance of the freedom of movement of commodities, services, capital and workforce, and realization of the coordinated or single policy with regards to economic sectors; 2) realistic, federation with the elements of confederation – joint administration of the Union cover 50% of state functions; 3) optimistic, being a part of the Russian Federation – joint administration of Federation covers80% of state functions, with the possibility of significant increase of country’s security, if 3-7 republics of the former Soviet Union are a part of Russia. The quantitative analysis of geopolitical situation demonstrates the presence of favorable conditions for integration processes.