The Allocation of Carbon Intensity Reduction Target by 2030 among Cities in China

Longyu Shi,Lijie Gao,Fengmei Yang

doi:10.3390/en13226006

Abstract

The regional allocation of carbon emission quotas is of great significance to realize the carbon emission target. Basing on the combination of the multi-index method and the improved equal-proportion distribution method, and fully considering the differences in economic factors, population factors, energy factors, technological factors among cities, China’s 2030 carbon intensity reduction target was allocated. The results indicate that: (1) Under the target constraint of 60% reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (carbon intensity) in 2030 compared to 2005, the carbon intensity target reduction rate (CITRR) of 285 Chinese cities is between 17.65% and 141.14%, with an average reduction rate of 51.52%; (2) the CITRR of cities presents significant spatial positive correlation, and the Global Moran I correlation index is 0.38; and (3) the distribution trend of CITRR is the same as the general trend of economic development of China, showing a basic trend of gradual decline from south to north and from coastal to inland. The allocation method takes into account fairness and efficiency, and reflects the differences between cities, so that the allocation results are likely to be accepted by all parties. Meanwhile, this method breaks the limitation of the lack of city’s data and is likely to implement in actual operation. Cities should choose distinguished low-carbon economic development paths, in combination with their characteristics of economic and social development, and carry out inter-city cooperation to promote carbon emission reduction steadily.

Highlights

The inertia of continuous emissions creates potential global warming in the 21st century that is comparable to, but several orders of magnitude faster than, the largest global change in the past 65 million years [1]
After adjusting the relative reduction factor of the influence factors of carbon dioxide emissions, the carbon intensity target reduction rate (CITRR) assigned to each city has obvious differences, and the CITRR is between 17.65% and 141.14%
Dongying city in Shandong province has the highest carbon intensity reduction rate of 141.14%, which is mainly related to its economic development level and industrial structure

Summary

Introduction

The inertia of continuous emissions creates potential global warming in the 21st century that is comparable to, but several orders of magnitude faster than, the largest global change in the past 65 million years [1]. The Paris Agreement provides a good opportunity for all countries in the world jointly cope with the climate crisis [2]. China is the largest carbon dioxide emissions country in the world. China submitted an “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)” in the Paris Agreement to actively address climate change, which intends to achieve peak CO2 emissions around 2030 and lower the carbon intensity of GDP by 60–65% below 2005. Studies have opposite opinions on whether China’s current policies are sufficient for China to achieve its INDC [4,5]. National carbon emission reduction policies cannot guarantee the achievement of the ambitious goal. China needs further strengthen the implementation of the INDC at the local level

Results

Discussion

Conclusion