Development of model on energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants and GHGS in China

Abstract

This chapter focuses on examining and forecasting the energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) to analyze the influences of energy conservation and the introduction of advanced techniques in the reduction of CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions. It presents a study that develops an integrated analysis, forecast, and optimization model on energy consumption and environmental emissions by province, energy demand sector and fuel type in China. The study first establishes the detailed database on manufacturing techniques, energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) or product, and emission factors by province, energy demand sector, and fuel type in China. Based on this database, a model of scenario analysis and prediction on energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants and GHGs by province and energy demand sector is developed, taking into account factors such as economic development, industry construction, population moving, urbanization, and environmental policy in China. Using this model, the predictions of multi-scenarios on energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants and GHGs by province, energy demand sector, and fuel type in China are performed until the year of 2050.