Abstract
AbstractOn August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. Despite blatant electoral fraud and procedural violations, the official results declared Aleksandr Lukashenka reelected for a sixth term. While in the past, even the most obviously fraudulent election results have been followed by an atmosphere of resigned acceptance, this time countless Belarusians took to the streets to contest the results. What made this election different? This analysis of current affairs looks at the 2020 events through the lens of authoritarian consolidation theory, suggesting the unprecedented political mobilization was enabled by erosion in the three pillars of authoritarian stability: repression, cooptation, and legitimation. A majority of the population had been accepting the political status quo out of fear, for social and monetary security provided in exchange for loyalty, or a general understanding that there were no alternatives. Lukashenka did not realize this had largely changed. Nine months later, the foundation of the authoritarian regime is in an even worse shape. The regime’s reliance on repression further counteracts the legitimacy of the system. As a result, it seems it will be difficult for the authorities to re-consolidate authoritarianism, at least in the near future, no matter how the ‘revolution’ unfolds.
Highlights
Fraudulent the reporting of results, have been followed by an atmosphere of resigned acceptance
The popular political mobilization that started in connection to the 2020 presidential election was a surprise
By looking through the lens of authoritarian consolidation theory, my analysis of these recent events seeks to shed some light on how the sudden political mobilization of the Belarusian population developed
Summary
The most commonly heard explanation for the Belarusian system surviving and prospering for more than 26 years is its reliance on a sort of co-optation—a Soviet-style social contract between Lukashenka and his citizens that guarantees them stability, order, and financial security in exchange for their loyalty. As various population groups have different needs, the benefits provided differed, but largely the contract provided “opportunities to find a job, offered a wide range of complimentary services and subsidized some prices and tariffs” (Dobrinksy 2016, 10). This system was based primarily on incomes from heavily subsidized natural gas and crude oil from Russia, which made it possible both to run domestic industry cheaply and to generate revenue by re-exporting refined oil products to Western Europe. Pension payments have stagnated and not increased in line with constant inflation. Most pensioners do not have to live in extreme poverty but, importantly, do not have the same high standard of living they had before (Douglas, 2020)
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