The 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China

Abstract

According to the statistical analysis, a total of 25 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China and neighborhood from 1300 to 2015. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has shown an obvious commensurability and self-organized orderliness. It should be remarked especially that the Nepal great earthquakes have a significant relationship with the M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China. Within such a short 100 years from 1902 to 2001, three ordered pairs of M ≥ 8 earthquakes took place in West China: 1902–1906, 1927–1931, and 1997–2001, each pair of two earthquakes had a time interval of 4 years, which is a quite unique and rare example in the earthquake history of China and the whole world. Based on the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, this paper focuses on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, supplements new information of three M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal: M8 in 1833, M8.1 in 1934, and M8.1 in 2015, hence constructs and further optimizes the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes to make prediction research. The results show that the occurrence of the 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake indicates the beginning of another M ≥ 8 earthquake cycle in West China. The great or strong earthquakes will probably happen in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau area and gradually migrate from the south to the north for decades. A new ordered pair of M ≥ 8 earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in West China, as well as a single event around 2029.