Patterns and regularity of ring distribution of seismic activity before great earthquakes in China

Abstract

A systematic study on “ring phenomena” frequently occurring before great earthquakes has made in this paper, which has analyzed the features of ring distributions before 16 great earthquakes and part of large earthquakes in China and its boundary areas, and discussed their features of generality, regularity and predictive meaning. The results have showed that moderate earthquakes or larger earthquakes distribute around the epicenter like a ring from decades to hundred years before the great earthquakes of magnitude more than 7, which is a general phenomenon of great earthquakes without an exception. The active ring generally occurs in the areas from hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the epicenter (according to the magnitude). The seismicity in the ring has three basic stages with different features. in the first stage, seismicity remains at low level and the earthquakes distribute scatteredly, while the source area of the future great earthquake remains quiet; in the second stage, the seismicity strengthens, whose frequency, intensity, concentrated degree, released rate of strain and ratio of distributed area etc. increase, while the quiet area decreases or disappears; in the third stage, the seismicity is weaker than in the former stage, and the quiet area appears again. The source area surrounded by the active ring might have three periods of activity (called as early-term, medium-term and late-term foreshocks activity). The length of the quiet area undergoes the process from large to small, then to large. Therefore, we can estimate the occurring place, magnitude and seismogenic stage of great earthquake according to the area, length and the seismicity in the active ring, which is valuable to make a long-term prediction of great earthquakes. At last, we had a preliminary discussion on the mechanism of active ring formation.