The 2014 Elections in New Caledonia: A Precursor to Self-determination?

Abstract

ABSTRACTOn 11 May 2014, voters in New Caledonia went to the polls to elect representatives to three provincial assemblies and the national congress. The election results reaffirmed the division between supporters and opponents of independence, as New Caledonians move towards a self-determination referendum scheduled before the end of 2018. The election results confirmed longstanding regional and political divisions. In the rural north and outlying Loyalty Islands, the FLNKS independence movement holds sway. In spite of a united mobilisation by a pro-independence coalition in the Southern Province, three competing anti-independence parties dominate the Southern assembly. The campaign highlighted issues that will dominate political debate in coming years: electoral reforms, economic and fiscal policy, the key role of nickel mining and competing alternatives to ‘exit’ the 1998 Noumea Accord. In the incoming congress, 29 conservative opponents of independence face 25 members of independence parties. This balance of forces in New Caledonia's political institutions and divisions within the loyalist camp means tension will be ongoing as the country moves closer to the scheduled referendum on self-determination – especially as France seeks to maintain its status as a midsized global power.