The 1984 Democratic Nomination Process: The Significance of Unpledged Superdelegates

Abstract

This article analyzes the votes of party leaders and elected officials, or superdelegates, at the 1984 Democratic convention. Analysis of state-level data reveals that unpledged superdelegates voted overwhelmingly for Walter Mondale, even in those 26 states in which Gary Hart or Jesse Jackson won the primary or caucus. This Mondale advantage among unpledged superdelegates was substantial enough in many of these states to tip the balance of the state's delegation away from Hart or Jackson. The candidate preferences of these unpledged superdelegates were also in direct constrast to those of pledged superdelegates; the latter were more likely to reflect the preferences of voters in their state's primary or caucus. Analysis of hypothetical delegate vote totals at the convention reveals that Mondale would have had a much tighter race for the nomination without the votes of unpledged superdelegates; he might have been denied a first-ballot victory. The effects of unpledged superdelegates on the 1984 Democratic nomination process therefore raise important questions about the desirability of this most recent reform within the party.