Thaw-induced slope failures and susceptibility mapping in permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor, China

Abstract

With recent climatic warming and enhanced human activities, slope failures related to permafrost degradation are widespread along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor. Assessment and mapping of the slope failures are necessary to mitigate hazards and plan engineering activities. According to our field investigations, the occurrence of slope failures is mainly controlled by the slope gradient, ground-ice content, permafrost temperatures, surficial deposits, and slope aspect. Modeling conducted in ArcGIS™ was used to produce a slope failure susceptibility map for a representative region along the Qinghai–Tibet Railway from Wudaoliang to Fenghuo Mountain Pass. The study region was divided into four classes based on slope failure susceptibility: (1) unlikely, (2) low, (3) moderate, and (4) high. Areas classified as unlikely accounted for 10.76 % of the study region, while low susceptibility areas comprised 44.51 %. The moderate and high susceptibility zones comprised 21.79 and 22.94 %, respectively. The actual distribution of slope failures in the region was consistent with the modeled results, which demonstrates the utility of the assessment method for future hazard management and engineering planning.