Assessment of slope failure susceptibility along road networks in a forested region, northern Iran

Abstract

The risk of slope failure is always associated with the roads constructed in mountain regions. Estimation of the susceptibility of roads to slope failure is a part of the solutions for decreasing road maintenance costs. In this study, we modeled the susceptibility of slope failure along a forest road in northern Iran using the random forest (RF) method. The distribution of past failures was surveyed during field reconnaissance to produce an inventory map. Then the failures were randomly divided into two groups such that 70% (176 locations) were used for model training and the remaining 30% (75 locations) were used for model validation. Eleven geoenvironmental factors (i.e., altitude, slope degree, slope direction, plan curvature, flow accumulation, stream power index, topographic wetness index, topographic position index, topographic roughness index, slope-length, and valley depth) that thought directly or indirectly affected slope failure were selected and linked to the failure locations. The spatial associations between the influencing factors and the failure locations were assessed using the RF method and used for generating spatially explicit maps of slope failure susceptibility. The results showed that stream power index, flow accumulation, and plan curvature with Gini coefficients of 74%, 66%, and 51%, respectively, were the most influential factors in the occurrence and distribution of slope failures. The slope failure susceptibility maps were classified using the natural breaks and geometrical intervals classification methods and showed that nearly 38.11% and 42.42% of the study area are in high to very high risk classes, respectively. Model validation using the sensitivity (92.31%), specificity (85.68%), accuracy (88.54%), root mean square error (RMSE) (0.303), and area under the curve (0.902) proved the excellent performance of the RF model in elucidating the failure mechanisms and predicting future failures. The slope failure susceptibility maps produced in this study allow the development of mitigation strategies for road construction projects.