Thailand: De-Escalation and Uncertainty

Abstract

Winston Churchill once remarked that sovereign nations possess no permanent friends and no permanent enemies; they possess only permanent interests. During 1968 certain aspects of this fundamental principle of international politics became painfully apparent to some elements of the Thai government. The de-escalation of American military power in the Vietnamese war and the possibility of a retrenchment in American policy in Southeast Asia aroused a growing sense of doubt and uncertainty among officials in the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The developments jolted these officials into a deeper realization that important sectors of their national life are intimately related to the vagaries of international affairs. The concern began when President Johnson announced on March 31 that he was reducing the level of American military involvement in Vietnam and taking steps toward a negotiated peace settlement with the Hanoi government. As the American presidential and congressional campaigns progressed, Thai Foreign Affairs officials became increasingly worried over numerous demands from critics of both major political parties for a disengagement of American power from Southeast Asia, urgent appeals for a unilateral withdrawal" of American troops from Vietnam, and specific claims that the U.S. has only a "limited obligation" in Thailand and other nations in Southeast Asia. In brief, elements in Bangkok became increasingly fearful that the government policy which had been followed for almost twenty years in close cooperation with U.S. efforts to contain Communist expansion in Southeast Asia might be coming to an end. At mid-year the Thai Foreign Minister, Thanat Khoman, declared: "The United States has tried to raise doubts in our minds and it has succeeded. It has succeeded in raising doubts in its own mind."' However, the nation's top leaders, Prime Minister Thanom Kittikachorn and Deputy Premier Prapart Charusathien, while worried, apparently assume that the U.S. will continue its assistance to Thailand. Thanat's statement and the extreme anxiety of his Foreign Affairs Ministry should be viewed as the most dramatic expressions of a pervasive concern within Thai officialdom. The uncertainty among Thai leaders assumed heightened proportions as external and internal Communist threats continued to confront the kingdom. On the third anniversary of the Communist underground organization, the