TGAE: Temporal Graph Autoencoder for Travel Forecasting

Abstract

With the development of intelligent transportation systems, timely and accurate travel forecasting task has witnessed growing interest. Unlike most previous research that only considers the demand prediction in origin regions, this task aims to predict the origin-destination demand between all-region pairs. Its main challenges come from effectively capturing the direction, weight, and temporal information of links in dynamic traffic networks. To confront these challenges, we treat the dynamic traffic networks as multiple weighted directed network snapshots and propose a graph-based deep learning framework, Temporal Graph Autoencoder (TGAE). Specifically, TGAE encodes the fundamentally asymmetric nature of a directed graph via directed neighborhood aggregation and learns a pair of vector representations for each node. Meanwhile, we use the graph attention mechanism to capture the weight information of links. Next, TGAE preserves the temporal dependencies by independently reconstructing the existence and weight of links over two consecutive time steps. Furthermore, we employ the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) to capture the evolution patterns of traffic networks and predict both the direction and weight of links based on the historical data. Experimental results demonstrate that TGAE outperforms several baseline methods on the travel forecasting task, which can help traffic management, resource preallocation, and services optimization.