Abstract

Abstract This study examines direct observations of outdoor routine activities to investigate the pathways through which temperatures shape crime. Daily administrative records of crime, weather and outdoor activity were assembled from 2015 to 2019 in New York City. Mediation analysis (with bootstrapped standard errors) reveals that alterations in routine activities account for a statistically significant, yet modest, proportion of temperature’s relationship with homicides, shootings, assaults, larceny and public consumption violations. The comparable mediation effects across violent and nonviolent crimes support routine activity theory as an explanatory framework for understanding temperature’s impact on crime. The measures introduced here offer a novel approach for testing the theory and suggest other potential applications.

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