Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models

Abstract

R&D-based growth models are tested using US data for the period 1953-2014. A general growth model is developed which nests the model varieties of interest. The model implies a cointegrating relationship between multifactor productivity, research intensity, and employment. This relationship is estimated using cointegrated VAR models. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and in favor of the semi-endogenous variety. Forecasts based on the empirical estimates suggest that the slowdown in US productivity growth will continue. Particularly, the annual long-run growth rate of GDP per worker converges to between zero and 1.1 pct.