TERRITORIAL PATTERNS OF TURNOUT AND REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2002-2014 IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Problem Statement and Purpose. Geography of turnout is in the periphery of the geographical studies of elections. However, recent studies of the geographical patterns of the turnout decline and dynamics in Western countries reveal the importance of the understanding of the time and place-specific contexts of the decisions to vote or not to vote. There are no studies dedicated to the geography of turnout in Ukraine; therefore, the paper aims to fill the gap and start a discussion of territorial patterns of turnout in parliamentary elections in the country in 2002-2014. Data & Methods. The paper examines the geography of turnout in Ukraine based on the data at the polling stations level and administrative rayons (n=490) and cities with special administrative status (n=183) level for parliamentary elections of 2002. 2006. 2007. 2012. and 2014. The cartographic analysis was conducted for the turnout at polling stations level and geography of the votes for the parties under the threshold at rayon and cities with special administrative status level. Results. The analysis reveals that South and East Ukraine has significantly lower turnout, which became more vivid after 2002 elections, cities in Ukraine have essentially lower turnout than the periphery, and territories with higher shares of national minorities also have lower turnout. The situation is complicated by the higher level of support for parties, which did not reach the threshold on proportional voting in 2014 parliamentary elections in the South and East Ukraine, and higher support of such parties in the territories with higher shares of national minorities in 2002-2014. The paper also reveals that the gap in turnout between urban and rural areas was declining in 2002-2014 because of the lower level of turnout decline in cities. Moreover, in 2006 parliamentary elections, turnout in cities with special administrative status increased despite continuous decline in the periphery. We also start a discussion about the causes and consequences of the territorial patterns in turnout and its dynamics in Ukraine.