Abstract
Analysis of detailed statistics shows remarkable fluctuations in the volume and composition of voyages on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the northern coast of Russia since international use began in 2010. There has been strong growth in destination shipping between the Arctic and ports outside the region, but transit shipping between the Pacific and the Atlantic has not experienced the growth many had anticipated. Explanations are found in international market conditions as well as in the management of the NSR, with important lessons for the future development of different shipping segments. Shipping companies from several countries took part in the period up to 2019, but they seem to have become less central in the current phase of NSR shipping, which is dominated by the transport of hydrocarbons out of the Arctic. Russia expects international transit to pick up later. However, Russia alone cannot determine the volume of international traffic: it is the international shipping industry that will assess the balance of factors and conditions, and conclude if and when the shorter Arctic routes are safe, efficient, reliable, environmentally sound and economically viable in comparison with other routes.
Highlights
The Russian-governed Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the key section of the Northeast Passage between northwest Europe and northeast Asia
Most of the NSR research literature has focused on the use of the sea route for trans-Arctic transit between the Pacific and the Atlantic
Several studies over the past ten years have examined the economic viability of the NSR in comparison to the traditional Suez route, for different types of cargo.[1]
Summary
The Russian-governed Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the key section of the Northeast Passage between northwest Europe and northeast Asia. Its role as a corridor to bring energy resources westwards to Europe and eastwards to Asian markets has come into focus in recent years with the rapid development of oil and LNG projects in West Siberia.[6] Both transit shipping and destination shipping to foreign markets represent a connection between the sea route and the international economy, whether shipping operations are carried out by Russian or foreign companies. The NSR was officially opened for international shipping on January 1, 1991, following Mikhail Gorbachev’s Murmansk speech in 1987, where he promoted international cooperation in the Arctic and mentioned shipping in particular.[13] An international research project – the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) – was initiated by Russia between 1993–99 to explore conditions for extended use of the sea route.[14] In connection with INSROP, a vessel from Norilsk Nickel’s cargo fleet, Kandalaksha, undertook a demonstration voyage in August 1995 from Yokohama in Japan to Kirkenes in Norway.[15] This was the first commercial international transit voyage on the NSR in modern times. A new milestone for international shipping on the NSR came in 2009, when two heavy lift carriers, Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight, belonging to the German company Beluga Shipping, delivered several heavy power-plant modules produced in South Korea to the port of Yamburg in the Ob Bay.[21]
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