Ten-year fracture probability in Hong Kong Southern Chinese according to age and BMD femoral neck T-scores

Abstract

This study estimated the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in Hong Kong Southern Chinese based on a simplified model of the recently developed WHO fracture risk prediction tool (FRAX). Thus, the data provides further insights into potential development of a population-specific FRAX model for Hong Kong in the future. The purpose of this paper was to estimate the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in Hong Kong (HK) Southern Chinese according to age and bone mineral density (BMD) T-score at the femoral neck based on the methodology of the FRAX risk assessment tool calibrated to the epidemiology of HK. Hip fracture data was obtained from the Clinical Data Analysis Reporting System (CDAS) of the Hospital Authority of HK and population size and death rates were taken from the HK Government Census and Statistics Department. Fracture probability was calculated using the cut-off values for T-scores derived from the NHANES III data for Caucasian women aged 20-29 years for BMD at the femoral neck. In this study, the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in HK Southern Chinese increased markedly with increasing age and decreasing femoral neck BMD T-scores in both women and men. Interestingly, at low T-scores, the increase in 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in women with age was greater than in men. Fracture probabilities were substantially higher than those from mainland China. Based on this evidence, and until we have HK Southern Chinese population-specific information, we recommend the application of the Caucasian risk profile to calculate the absolute fracture risk for HK Southern Chinese subjects.