Abstract
ABSTRACT Factors that affect the survival of nestling birds can drive the dynamics of populations and the evolution of life histories. Such factors may include a variety of intrinsic, biotic, or abiotic factors that vary in magnitude or effect over ecological time scales. Consequently, estimates of the influence of such factors on nest success may differ when estimated from short- vs. long-term studies. We tested this possibility by estimating the influence of 2 intrinsic factors (female age and inbreeding coefficient), 2 abiotic factors (rainfall and temperature), and 3 biotic factors (breeding density, parasitism rate, and brood parasitism) previously found to predict success (≥1 fledged young) in a 39 yr study of a Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population on Mandarte Island, British Columbia, Canada. We then compared those estimates to others obtained from parallel models based on the the first 13 yr, middle 13 yr, and last 13 yr of the study. Over the entire study, nest success increased in females...
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