Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the temporal-spatial variations of the characteristics of land use change in central Asia over the past two decades. This was conducted using four indicators (change rate, equilibrium extent, dynamic index, and transfer direction) and a multi-scale correlation analysis method, which explained the impact of recent environmental transformations on land use changes. The results indicated that the integrated dynamic degree of land use increased by 2.2% from 1995 to 2015. The areas of cropland, water bodies, and artificial land increased, with rates of 1047 km2/a, 39 km2/a, and 129 km2/a, respectively. On the other hand, the areas of forest, grassland, and unused land decreased, with rates of 54 km2/a, 803 km2/a, and 359 km2/a, respectively. There were significant increases in cropland and water bodies from 1995 to 2005, while the amount of artificial land significantly increased from 2005 to 2015. The increased areas of cropland in Xinjiang were mainly converted from grassland and unused land from 1995 to 2015, while the artificial land increase was mainly a result of the conversion from cropland, grassland, and unused land. The area of cropland rapidly expanded in south Xinjiang, which has led to centroid position to move cropland in Xinjiang in a southwest direction. Economic development and the rapid growth of population size are the main factors responsible for the cropland increases in Xinjiang. Runoff variations have a key impact on cropland changes at the river basin scale, as seen in three typical river basins.
Highlights
Land cover and land use change is a result of the combined effects of climate change and human activities [1]
Changes in dry and wet conditions can lead to changes in land use types [10,11], especially in arid regions, where water resources from river runoff mainly come from glaciers, snow melt, and precipitation in mountainous regions, which are significantly affected by climate change [12]
We focused on temporal-spatial variations of land use under climate change, in addition to human activities in arid regions from 1995 to 2015, based on land use data, runoff, climate data, and socioeconomic data
Summary
Land cover and land use change is a result of the combined effects of climate change and human activities [1]. Changes in dry and wet conditions can lead to changes in land use types [10,11], especially in arid regions, where water resources from river runoff mainly come from glaciers, snow melt, and precipitation in mountainous regions, which are significantly affected by climate change [12]. Global warming has been observed to accelerate in glaciers and snow melt [13], runoff will increase in a short period [14], but may not continue. This feature will impact the changes in oasis land use types in arid regions
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