Abstract
Guizhou Province, China, experienced several severe drought events over the period from 1960 to 2013, causing great economic loss and intractable conflicts over water. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts are analyzed with the standard precipitation index (SPI), comprehensive meteorological drought index (CI), and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Meanwhile, historical drought records are used to test the performance of each index at identifying droughts. All three indices show decreasing annual and autumn trends, with the latter particularly prominent. 29, 30, and 32 drought events were identified during 1960–2013 by the SPI, CI, and RDI, respectively. Continuous drought is more frequent in winter–spring and summer–autumn. There is a significant increasing trend in drought event frequency, peak, and strength since the start of the 21st century. Drought duration indicated by CI shows longer durations in the higher-elevation region of central and western Guizhou. The corresponding drought severity is high in these regions. SPI and RDI indicate longer drought durations in the lower elevation central and eastern regions of Guizhou Province, where the corresponding drought severity is also very strong. SPI shows an increasing trend in drought duration and drought severity across most of the regions of Guizhou. In general, SPI and RDI show an increasing trend in the western Guizhou Province and a decreasing trend in central and eastern Guizhou. Comparing these three drought indices with historical records, the RDI is found to be more objective and reliable than the SPI and CI when identifying the periods of drought in Guizhou.
Highlights
Drought, a water shortage phenomenon caused by natural precipitation anomalies, is one of the most serious natural disasters, causing economic losses globally. e American Meteorological Society classified droughts into four types: meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and socioeconomic drought [1]
Advances in Meteorology ranges of influence, longest durations, and greatest losses; drought disasters lead to food production reduction, water shortages, and deterioration of ecosystems and the environment, and to death and the change of dynasties, given that they are an important factor in restricting sustainable social development [3]. e factors influencing drought disasters are complex since there are great uncertainties relating to the occurrence and development of drought disasters in both time and space
In China, droughts cause an annual average of 2.5 × hm2 of no-harvest area and 1.62 × 1010 kg of grain loss; droughts cause 2.7 × people and 2.0 × 107 livestock to have difficulty finding sufficient drinking water; together, these factors contribute to an annual average direct economic loss of 1.0 × 1011 Chinese Yuan [6]. e abovementioned information indicates that China as a major agricultural country suffered severe meteorological droughts which caused great economic losses [7]
Summary
A water shortage phenomenon caused by natural precipitation anomalies, is one of the most serious natural disasters, causing economic losses globally. e American Meteorological Society classified droughts into four types: meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and socioeconomic drought [1]. Is severe drought, which affected ∼8.0 × 106 hm of arable land, led to a large reduction in crop production and caused drinking water shortages for 25 million people and 18 million livestock; the drought caused total direct economic losses of more than 40 billion Chinese Yuan [16, 17]. Several extreme drought disasters have hit Guizhou Province, such as that from September 2009 to March 2010, which caused drinking water shortages for 4.85 million people, with 7.01 × 105 hm of crops suffering from drought, and direct economic losses of 2.3 billion Chinese Yuan. The extreme summer drought of 2013 caused drinking water shortages for 2.645 million people and 1.12 million livestock, with 1.763 × 106 hm of crops affected, causing an economic loss of ∼9.64 billion Chinese Yuan [24,25,26]. No study has validated these drought indices using historical disaster records, despite validation of the reliability of these indices being of great importance. is study aims at building a link between drought indices and real drought events in Guizhou Province, China
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