Temporal paths in delinquency: Stability, regression, and progression analyzed with panel data from an adolescent and a delinquent male sample

Abstract

Two topical questions in criminology are whether juveniles show a progression from less to more serious forms of delinquency and whether specialization in delinquent activities takes place over time. In order to investigate these questions, a self-reported questionnaire was administered to a sample of representative adolescents and to a sample of known delinquents; the questionnaire was administered twice at a two year interval, and transition matrices were constructed using an index of predictability (RIOC). The matrices documented instances of stability, regression, and progression in delinquency. Both samples showed a moderate stability, which varied by offense category. Over time, delinquency tended either to remain stable or to progress, with a lesser tendency to deescalate or regress. Escalation from minor to more serious offenses was more typical for the adolescent than for the delinquent sample, while the latter appeared to move over time to more diverse forms of offending. It was more common in the delinquent sample for individuals to continue in the same pattern of offending. Different paths in delinquency over time were apparent in both samples.