Temporal Analysis of the Relationship between Meteorological Factors and Pollen Abundance in Raleigh, North Carolina

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change affects both meteorological factors and plant processes. As earth’s average climate conditions warm, it is predicted that pollen will produce even more allergenic spores in areas where it already exists, like Raleigh, North Carolina, becoming a serious human health issue. Methods: In order to observe climate and pollen relationships, pollen counts are plotted against temperature, humidity (in the form of dew point temperature), and precipitation in Raleigh, North Carolina from February 2, 1999 to September 4, 2018. Linear regression tools in Microsoft Excel were used to analyze annual and seasonal data that had been aggregated by month. Results: The annual data revealed the strongest correlation between the increased temperature in the area and pollen count, particularly in tree pollen species. Conversely, the seasonal data for spring showed a stronger correlation between average precipitation and pollen count. Conclusions: The IPCC has predicted that temperature and precipitation will both continue to rise and, based on historical data, it is likely that the relationship between pollen and temperature, as supported by annual tree pollen data, as well as the relationship between pollen and precipitation, as supported by weed and grass seasonal pollen analysis, will increase the pollen counts in Raleigh. While a direct correlation cannot be concluded definitively, the results indicate that temperature is related to tree pollen count and precipitation is related to grass and weed pollen count. Keywords: pollen, climate change, temperature, precipitation, humidity