Temperature rise curtails activity period predicted for a winter-active forest lizard, Scincella formosensis, from subtropical areas in Taiwan

Abstract

1. Temperature rise due to climate change affects seasonal activity times, leading to a discordance of phenology among species and changing the strength of interaction between species. Understanding how temperature changes will affect the length of a species' activity period is essential in order to forecast its response to climate warming. 2. We investigated the thermal physiology and monthly activity of a skink from subtropical areas in Taiwan, Scincella formosensis. In addition, we predicted its response to climate warming and potential landscape vegetation changes using a mechanistic model, Niche MapperTM. We incorporated the animals' thermal traits and climatic data to simulate thermally suitable time for activity each month in two sites (open area, dense forest). 3. We found that this species restricts its activity to the cool months of the year, and that juveniles emerge in June. The thermally suitable period for activity is predicted to be longer in cool months than warm months. 4. Our model predicts that a 3°C increase in temperature will curtail the thermally suitable time for activity in open areas in late spring and result in very minimal time for activity in the summer, even when dense forest is available. These results add to the growing body of literature indicating that a temperature rise will have a widespread impact on sub/tropical forest reptiles.