Abstract
Our objectives were to quantify the effect of abiotic factors on CO2 emissions in the Humid Pampa of Argentina and estimate the potential increase in CO2 fluxes from this agricultural soil as a consequence of climate change. The experimental site was located at Pergamino (33°56′S, 60°34′W), on a fine, illitic, thermic Typic Argiudoll soil. In situ CO2 production presented an exponential relationship with air temperature. C liberated annually by mineralization was estimated by integration of monthly respiration measurements and amounted to 8.4 t C ha–1 year–1. Future monthly CO2 fluxes were calculated for the climate change scenario (doubled atmospheric C concentration) using mean monthly temperatures predicted for Pergamino. An increase of around 50% in CO2 emission from agricultural soils in the Humid Pampa could be expected as a consequence of climate change. The effect of the climate change scenario projected by the global climate models for the Humid Pampa indicates a reduction of the biomass production of cereal crops. Consequently, the predicted decrease in C inputs to soil for this region and an important increase in soil C mineralization would result in marked future C losses.
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