Abstract
How to detect potential useful technical information hidden in patents and scientific papers is crucial for technology trend forecasting and potential research opportunities. Using the text mining method to extract hidden technical information is helpful in assisting strategic decision-making and predicting the tendency of technological development. This study proposes a framework to combine patent analysis and scientific paper analysis to predict technology trends and discover technology opportunities. By mining the hidden technical information, we compared an analysis of patents and scientific papers to reveal the technological development trajectory and future development trends and discover potential technological innovation opportunities. First, we extracted the knowledge contained in patents and scientific papers by text mining. Then, we cleaned and coded the data through natural language processing. We used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model to cluster topics and list the multi-dimensional hierarchical structure diagram. We compared and analyzed results, combined them with expert knowledge, and drew a technology roadmap to predict future development trends and discover technological opportunities. Finally, we used refrigerated container technology as an example for validation. Results showed that the framework proposed in this study can directly and comprehensively display the development trend of technology and discover potential technological innovation opportunities to verify the effectiveness of the framework. The proposed method also provides an effective reference and inspiration for future research.
Highlights
Technological innovation is an important driving force for social and economic development
We developed a framework to predict future development trends of refrigerated container technology, according to the understanding of the past and the current technological development level and trajectory
This study proposes a framework that uses scientific literature and technology patents as data sources, combines text mining based on topic clustering and expert judgment methods, and compares the analysis results of scientific papers and patents to predict technology trends and discover potential technological innovation opportunities
Summary
Technological innovation is an important driving force for social and economic development. We developed a framework to predict future development trends of refrigerated container technology, according to the understanding of the past and the current technological development level and trajectory This framework uses the text mining method and expert knowledge, and draws a TRM to identify future issues the development trend of refrigerated container technology. Based on the actual effect, the application of this framework in the field of refrigerated containers can effectively identify and track technological development trends and provide enlightening technological innovation opportunities. All of these effects improve the ability to perceive market changes with the hope to achieve success in the future competitive environment.
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