Abstract

Bias is always a factor in decision making. To put it a catchier way, “if you have a brain, you are biased.” This was the opening to a recent soft-skills training course I took on the science of better decision making. I left pondering the implications of bias on pressure transient analysis. Well tests are conducted throughout the resource life cycle to establish well and reservoir properties and to optimize depletion planning. But this requires well-test interpretation, which, in turn, requires choosing among nonunique solutions. One key to reducing nonuniqueness is to integrate pressure data with information from other disciplines, including - Routine core analysis, core description, and well logs - Formation-tester mobilities and interval pressure transient tests - Production logging and distributed temperature surveys - Fieldwide production and injection history - Seismic data and geologic understanding This is where technology comes in. New tools have made the unmeasureable measurable and have provided data in larger quantities with improved precision and for longer periods of time. While it may be an engineer’s dream, more and better data do not necessarily lead to better decisions. As with any sound scientific or engineering study, one must think about bias. Is the data being unconsciously cherry-picked to mold the desired outcome? After all, the subsurface is complex enough that multiple assumptions and hypotheses remain plausible; not all information may fit the storyline, and some might be dismissed or underweighted before the full range of possibilities is considered. A critical component of interpretation includes acknowledging one’s own bias and carefully listening to and seriously considering alternative and opposing views. Cold-eyes reviews and devil’s advocates are part of a centuries-old toolkit proven to root out bias, ambiguity, and unnecessary complexity, leading to better-defined problems and, ultimately, better decision making. Interpreting data from new and well-established technologies under the framework of the Socratic method paves the way to a clearer view of the subsurface. This month’s papers demonstrate the continued relevance and diversity of our discipline. The ambitious permeability log, referred to as “elusive” in my column 2 years ago, now boasts a tangible pilot in a Middle Eastern carbonate field. Well tests and cleanup operations do not always require flaring. Alternative fluid-disposal solutions, tailored to project specifics, show potential to meet the timely topic of emissions. Machine learning offers a key to deciphering well connectivity in field data, overcoming noise and other suboptimal conditions. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. IPTC 21780 - Design and Implementation of a Water-Based Micronized Weighting Agent Fluid System for Deepwater Drillstem Testing Operation in Environmentally Restricted Location by Marcelo Dourado Motta, MI-SWACO, a Schlumberger Company, et al. SPE 205145 - Systematic Application of Pressure and Temperature Transient Analysis in an Oil Field: A Case Study by Khafiz Muradov, Heriot-Watt University, et al.

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