Technological Progress Opportunities in the Energy Sector of Russia

Abstract

Based on the scenarios [1] for the transition of world energy in the period up to 2040 to a new technological base, a study was made of its implications for energy and the economy of Russia. The damage from the declining export of Russian fuel due to the acceleration of technological progress (TP) in the global energy sector, as well as possible direct and multiplicative effects of its achievements in the energy sector of Russia1 are estimated. It is shown that with accelerated TP and the dynamics of domestic energy consumption obtained in the conservative scenario, it is possible to almost double the growth rate of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The required financial and economic conditions and measures for restructuring the fuel and energy complex2 are determined, so that the acceleration of TP in the energy sector could not only compensate for the expected decline in revenue from fuel exports, but almost double the growth rate of Russian GDP.