Technological Forecasting: Heat Pumps and the Synergy with Renewable Energy

Abstract

The possession and use of air conditioning in the residential sector is increasing and shifting the electricity energy use peak from Winter to Summer in Europe. As the average income grows, electricity consumption is expected to be higher, especially in developing countries, as these appliances are linked to thermal comfort in dwellings. A great effort has been made, especially in Europe and China, to study and deploy technologies driven by renewable energy. Using the Delphi technique, specialists from all continents were questioned about the future technology of air conditioning for residential use in a 20-30 year future. About half of the specialists answered that vapor compression cycle will be the main technology with direct heat dissipation to outside air. The investment and operational costs were classified as the key evaluation factor together with the Seasonal Performance Factor to compare systems and technologies. Despite the low use perspective of solar thermal energy for air conditioning, it is expected to be almost a standard for DHW in a 20-30 year period.