Technological forecasting for fuel cell electric vehicle: A comparison with electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles

Abstract

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEVs) are potential alternatives to replacing the Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs). However, these new possibilities, that aim to make mobility more sustainable, still lack greater research and development to boost their competitiveness and achieve technological maturity. The goal of this study is to analyze the technological life cycle of the FCEVs and compare it with other propulsion modes (ICEVs, HEVs and BEVs). Data was collected on the Questel Orbit platform for patent families published in the US (United States Patent and Trademark Office) and EP (European Patent Office). Using logistc model and LogletLab 4 software, it was possible to evaluate the level of technological maturity of each one of these technologies. The results of the search through patents show that FCEVs technology has reached technological maturity, and it is very close to saturation (between 2018 and 2024). The annual growth rate of the patent families for FCEVs decreased after 2009, reaching between 1 and 7%. In comparison, ICEVs are a mature technology, with its expected saturation between the years 2037–2043. HEVs and BEVs are the “hot” area of the technological movement and are causing greater R&D efforts.