Total Cost of Ownership of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Using Expert Assessments

Abstract

We calculated the total cost of ownership (TCO) of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in 2017, 2020, 2035, and 2050. Our TCO model incorporates proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) cost and durability data that we obtained during our expert elicitation interviews [1]. Our assumptions, including hydrogen storage system and fuel costs, are consistent with those published by the U.S. Department of Energy [2, 3]. We characterized the uncertainty associated with FCEV life cycle costs, and we compared our FCEV projections to the DOE’s 2035 projections for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). In our sensitivity analyses, we studied the dependence of FCEV TCO on vehicle lifetime, hydrogen fuel cost, and hydrogen storage system cost. All monetary values are expressed in 2017 USD. On median, we estimated the FCEV TCO to be $0.42/mile in 2017, $0.33/mile in 2020, $0.19/mile in 2035, and $0.18/mile in 2050 (Figure 1). Our 2017 and 2020 estimates ranged widely. Our 2017 estimates ranged from $0.40 to $0.75/mile and 2020 estimates ranged from $0.31 to $0.51/mile. By 2035, FCEVs could be competitive with ICEVs, BEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs, as long as the PEMFC stack lasts sufficiently long. If the FCEV’s lifetime falls below 11 yrs, FCEVs could become more expensive than competing vehicles. At about 11 yrs, the FCEV’s TCO exceeds that of the BEV. If stack durability remains a challenge, replacing the stack could be economical. Achieving a hydrogen fuel cost below $4/kg H2 and hydrogen system cost below $390/kg H2 could further improve FCEVs’ competitiveness.