Abstract
In our study, we analyse data from the Hungarian Microcensus (2016) in order to map the proportion of Hungarian jobs threatened by the spread of automation. In doing so, we use the internationally well-known methodology of Carl Benedict Frey and Michael A. Osborne who estimated the probability of computerization for 702 occupations. The analysis was then repeated by Panarinen and Rouvinen for the Finnish labour market by converting the probabilities defined for the US occupational statistics to the European International Standard Classification of Occupations. Similar calculations were conducted for the Swedish and Norwegian labour markets. According to our results, almost every second Hungarian employee (44%) works in a job that is threatened by the development of digital technologies. The same ratio is 47% in the US and 53% in Sweden, while it is much lower in Finland (35%) and Norway (33%). It is especially alarming that 13% of the Hungarian workforce (i.e., almost 600,000 employees) works in an occupation where the probability of computerization is above 95%, while the number of those working in occupations where the same ratio is above 90% exceeds one million (i.e., 25% of the total Hungarian labour force). Diving deeper into the analysis, we can state that those with higher educational qualifications are more likely to work in an occupation that is more protected against computerization. Overall, there are no significant differences in the probability of computerization by gender; however, women are over-represented in the most endangered occupations.
Highlights
Industrial Revolutions in the Context of the Technical–Technological Paradigm Shift there is widespread agreement in both professional and public discourse that technological developments will result in massive economic and social changes, there is some degree of uncertainty regarding how many industrial revolutions will occur over the few decades
Their research is largely focused on Frey and Osborne’s methodology that aims to assess susceptibility based on the automation probabilities of various occupations
Unlike the classifications used in international studies, they assigned probability values to each FEOR code5 on their own based on a keyword analysis of the definition of each occupation
Summary
Industrial Revolutions in the Context of the Technical–Technological Paradigm Shift there is widespread agreement in both professional and public discourse that technological developments will result in massive economic and social changes, there is some degree of uncertainty regarding how many industrial revolutions will occur over the few decades. The first common point is that innovation has been the primary catalyst of fundamental economic and social change It is not a question of a single technology emerging but of the simultaneous growth of technical innovations that seem to be distinctly different from one another, in addition to their interconnection and integration beyond a certain point of development. The role of the state in this phase is characterized by deregulation in this process to break down barriers to technological growth and encourage capital inflow into innovation. This method may be compared to blowing bubbles of expectation that sooner or later burst or in some cases be superseded and merged into a new bubble. The state will regain its dominant role in the third post-crisis phase of the the so-called deployment period, establishing a new regulatory environment, providing some guidance to the rapidly converging technical innovations , and shaping the determinants of the new growth model
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