Technological and market forecasting for a flat screen TV

Abstract

The difference between forecast approaches of technologists and economists is that the technologist looks at the trends in new techniques and assumes that fund will be available to support the necessary research and development, while the economist looks at total sales and assumes that technical advancements will occur which will permit high productivity and the development of new products. A rational forecast, which may not be any more correct, uses the inputs from both sectors to define the constraints for the support of research and development and production and then attempts to develop the time scale which new techniques and devices must satisfy in order to be successful. The conclusions reached are: 1) determine whether your research and development programs are directed toward new or substitution programs; 2) determine the potential markets and the market share you are seeking; and 3) set deadlines for product introduction and from this decide research budget and manpower requirements. In each step there is risk, since old technologies do not stand still, competitors are also taking risks, and new markets may not develop as predicted. For flat screen displays, limited markets are now developing, but large-scale consumer TV use is not expected for about ten years. The display of 1980 will probably not include the technologies now being researched. However, in the display area where we know there will be continuing needs for television and computer terminals, and where new products have developed new markets, I am optimistic that the research will pay.