Abstract
A techno-economic energy flow model for a standalone microgrid was developed to investigate the investment risks related to consumption changes and compare the results to a conventional grid-connection in Sweden. Two different design strategies for a standalone microgrid was used, one with the objective to minimize the life-cycle cost and the other to provide a lower investment risk. It was shown that the largest investment risk for both design strategies was a potential increase in annual energy consumption within the standalone microgrid. The design strategy with the objective to reduce the investment risk eliminated the influence on the life-cycle cost from an increase in peak consumption and reduced the overall investment risk in comparison to the design strategy with the objective to minimize the life-cycle cost. However, a larger life-cycle cost was the drawback of that design strategy. It was concluded that locations with larger annual mean capacity factors reduced the investment risk for standalone microgrids due to lower diesel fuel dependence. It was also concluded that a conventional grid-connection had a lower investment risk than a standalone microgrid, since adverse changes in consumption always increased the life-cycle cost less for a conventional grid-connection than for a standalone microgrid.
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