Technical change and total factor productivity growth: a study of Singapore's manufacturing industries

Abstract

The paper focuses onthe difference between the dual rate of technical change and the total factor productivity growth (TFPG). It estimates directly the dual rate of technical change from an integrated model that describes the cost structure and equilibrium condition of Singapore's manufacturing industries. It then calculates TFPG using the conventional productivity accounting approach. By showing the difference between the two measures, it is demonstrated that the non-parametric calculated TFPG cannot be interpreted wholly as a cost saving technical change since the preconditions required in the calculation of TFPG are not met. It is found that the majority of Singapore's manufacturing industries exhibit, on the one hand, substantial increasing returns to scale and, on the other hand, no significant technical change. However, the largest and fastest growing industries such as Electronic Products and Components show both significant cost-saving technical progress and decreasing returns to scale.