Tax enforcement, technology, and the informal sector

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Abstract Theoretical models of the informal sector mostly assume—or end up with—a positive correlation between a measure of taxes and the size of the informal sector. However, some recent empirical studies associate higher taxes with a smaller informal sector size. In this paper, we build a theoretical framework—an extension to a two-sector growth model—which allows us to unravel the negative correlation between informal sector size and taxes. We find that (a) a higher degree of tax enforcement, (b) a higher productivity of formal sector households, and (c) a lower physical capital depreciation rate make for a negative relation between these variables. Our results suggest that enforcement and technological factors are likely candidates to account for this relationship.