Target post-evaluation of China's “12th Five-Year” oil and gas exploration and development planning and its “13th Five-Year” target prediction

Abstract

In the turn of 12th and 13th “Five-Year Plan” of China, the global oil and gas market changes greatly. In this regard, the target post-evaluation of the “12th Five-Year” oil and gas exploration and development planning was conducted, which is of significant importance to scientifically and reasonably making the specific “13th Five-Year” oil and gas exploration and development target planning. The post-evaluation results indicate that, in the period of “12th Five-Year Plan”, the oil and gas exploration and development targets of China were satisfactorily completed, but some deficiencies still existed. For example, the target of oil production (2 × 108 t) was overfulfilled, while the target of oil reserves (65 × 108 t) remained 6.4% outstanding. The target of gas reserves (3.5 × 1012 m3) was overfulfilled, while the target of gas production (1385 × 108 m3) remained 6.2% outstanding. Moreover, the targets of unconventional gases were not satisfactorily completed-shale gas being better than coalbed methane (CBM). Failures to fulfill some targets in “12th Five-Year Plan” were primarily attributed to the slowdown of oil and gas consumption growth, sharp drop of oil price, downgrading of resources, and changes of statistic basis under the new normal. The forecast results suggest that, in the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, given USD50–70/bbl of world oil price, China's annual average incremental conventional oil and gas in place will be 10.0 × 108–12.0 × 108 t and 6000 × 108–8000 × 108 m3 respectively, annual average incremental shale gas and CBM in place will be 1000 × 108–2000 × 108 m3 and 500 × 108–1000 × 108 m3 respectively, and annual oil production will be about 2.0 × 108 t. By 2020, China's annual gas production will approach 1800 × 108–2000 × 108 m3 (shale gas: 200 × 108 m3, and CBM: 150 × 108 m3).