Talk the Talk and Walk the Walk: Can Regular Communication Reverse the Prolonged Crisis in the US-China Relationship?

Abstract

ABSTRACT A cycle pattern of retreat and advance in the US-China relationship was replaced by a prolonged crisis. The breakdown of regular communication during the Trump presidency was blamed partially for the downward spiral. The reopening of the line of communication in the summer of 2023, however, has not reversed the prolonged crisis. Exchanging goodwill and reaffirming the importance of diplomacy, Washington and Beijing have continued pushing each other’s hot buttons not because they misjudged each other’s intentions but because they understood each other’s red lines too well to make gains through accommodation on the fundamental issues of friction: the ideological struggle, the great power competition, and the Taiwan issue. Beijing risks overreaching and Washington risks overreaction. The two countries cannot move beyond the prolonged crisis unless their leaders find ways to overcome the fundamental roadblocks and cooperate in areas of mutual interest.