Tajikistan: authoritarian reaction in a postwar state

Abstract

Why and how has Tajikistan responded to the threat of democratic revolution? In this article, I argue that state failure and civil war in Tajikistan have imposed limitations on the country's emergent path of authoritarian development. Scarce resources and limited rent-seeking opportunities in postwar Tajikistan weakened the informal bases of presidential power and fragmented the country's state security institutions. As a consequence of its weakened presidential power and fragmented coercive capacity, Tajikistan's leadership has taken a moderated response to the threat of democratic revolution and pursued a slow, graduated strengthening of authoritarian rule. While electoral reforms were reversed, restrictions imposed on the media and on non-governmental organizations were selective and temporary and the use of force has been relatively circumscribed.