Central Asian Stability: Under Threat?

Abstract

The breakup of the Soviet Union in December 1991 resulted in the creation of fifteen separate states, including five in Central Asia: Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. At the time, many people questioned the stability of an independent Central Asia. They wondered whether the newly independent states of Central Asia would succumb to intra- and inter-state conflicts, the influence of Islamic fundamentalism, or interference from neighboring states. Five years later, however, Central Asia appears surprisingly stable despite both initial doubts and Tajikistan's protracted civil war which up to now has been contained within that country. Now, however, the stability Central Asia has enjoyed during the past five years is coming under increasing threat. One threat is Tajikistan's civil war, overshadowed in the Western press by the war in Chechnya. In 1996, the Moscow-backed Tajik government suffered a series of defeats. Moreover, the government must now contend with unfavorable developments in Afghanistan. Before its overthrow by the Taliban in September 1996 the Afghan government, under Burhanuddin Rabbani, had moved closer to Moscow and was cooperating in efforts to prevent the Tajik opposition forces from using Afghan [End Page 31] territory as a staging ground for incursions into Tajikistan. The Taliban is unlikely to continue this policy, thus complicating Russia's efforts to protect the Tajik government. A greater threat to Central Asian stability, however, is Russia's economic policy toward the region; specifically, the Yeltsin administration's efforts to control Central Asian petroleum exports and limit the share of profits collected by both the Central Asian governments and Western oil companies. Although Russia's economic policy does not intentionally seek to undermine Central Asian stability, it may do just that, resulting in a Central Asia more vulnerable to problems the region has thus far managed to avoid. This article will discuss the sources of stability that the Central Asian states--except Tajikistan--currently enjoy, how the civil war in Tajikistan and