Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Elections: An Analysis of What Happened, and What May Happen Next

Abstract

This Issue Paper from the Independence Institute examines the March 22, 2008, presidential election in Taiwan. The voters gave a landslide 58% victory to Ma YingJeou, the presidential candidate of the KMT (Kuomintang, or “Nationalist Party”).The incumbent President, Chen Shui-Bian, was term-limited, but many voters nevertheless appeared to be expressing a loss of confidence in his party, the DPP (“Democratic Progressive Party”). In particular, voters were dismayed by DPP’s poor management of the executive branch, and by the corruption scandals involving the President’s family, which undermined the DPP’s reformist reputation. In addition, the KMT presented a much more attractive and energetic candidate than it had in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, which the DPP won.Voters were very concerned about Taiwan’s economic slowdown. Voters also heeded the strong anti-DPP message sent by the United States government, which has criticized the DPP for supposedly provoking China by taking small steps towards formal independence.Given that Taiwan already is already independent and sovereign in every practical sense, the voters appear to have made a pragmatic decision to mend relations with the U.S., whose military is the ultimate guarantor of Taiwan’s present-day de facto independence. Notably, the KMT’s Ma ensured his victory by promising to be a vigorous defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty. Over the last eight years, the DPP has led an appropriate campaign to strengthen Taiwan’s national consciousness. Ironically, it was Ma who took the best advantage of Taiwan consciousness, by running a campaign to appeal broadly to all Taiwanese, as opposed to the DPP’s tactics of appealing to ethnic resentments.Once Ma takes office on May 20, he will face formidable challenges in dealing with the corrupt old guard of the KMT party, which dominates Taiwan’s legislature. A great deal must be done to strengthen Taiwan’s defense capabilitiesRather than being intimidated by “the rise of China,” the United States and Taiwan should recognize that even powerful dictatorships can be inherently fragile. The long term objective of the U.S.-Taiwan alliance should be maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty, and searching for ways to help restore the sovereignty of the Chinese people themselves, as well the sovereignty of the captive nations currently imprisoned in the Chinese empire.