Abstract
<p>Tajwan przyciąga uwagę całego świata ze względu na znaczenie geopolityczne wyspy w regionie Azji i Pacyfiku. Demokratyzacji Tajwanu towarzyszą ruchy secesyjne, co stwarza dodatkowe komplikacje. Prowadzi to wzrostu zagrożeń w różnych obszarach, politycznym, militarnym, ekonomicznym. Pomimo, że stosunki w Cieśnienie Tajwańskiej można obecnie określić jako względnie spokojne, sytuacja nadal nosi znamiona „niestabilnego pokoju””, używając terminologii zaproponowanej przez Lund Curve. W sytuacji gdy nadrzędnym celem Chin pozostaje zjednoczenie narodowe, większość tajwańskich wyborców faworyzują zachowanie status quo. Tym bardziej na uwagę zasługuje analiza bezprecedensowego spotkania prezydenta Ma Ying-jeou (Tajwan) z Xi Jinping (Chiny), które miało miejsce w listopadzie 2015 roku. Było to pierwsze spotkania tej rangi urzędników od zakończenia wojny domowej czyli od 1949 r.</p>
Highlights
Taiwan commands the world’s attention because of the geopolitics that enables the island to serve as the tail wagging global super dogs.[2]
The island still considers itself officially as the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan), tracing its political lineage to the ROC established in the wake of the Chinese revolution in 1911
Weeks after Beijing’s adoption of the Anti-Secession Law, reconciliation was achieved between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the KMT, in opposition
Summary
Taiwan commands the world’s attention because of the geopolitics that enables the island to serve as the tail wagging global super dogs.[2]. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring Taipei under its wing Both the PRC and Taiwan have made claims to islands in the East and South China Seas, which more or less clash with Japanese strategic and territorial aspirations. Advocates of Taiwan’s independence[3] proposed abandonment of the ROC’s claims over these disputed islands, reasoning that abandonment would improve their chances of gaining support from neighboring countries This added to a Stratfor (a Texas-based thinktank) article forecasting that Taiwan might voluntarily give up its claims under an independence-leaning president after the 2016 election.[4] the party affiliation and the strategic policy alignment of the future ROC president are of crucial importance to all three powers, if not more. The paper concludes that Beijing, the second host state whose aim is status quo, is unlikely to dramatically change its cross-Strait policy without political provocations from Taiwan
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