Abstract
Taiwan’s presidential elections in March 2000 could mark the end of more than 50 years of Kuomintang rule. The elections will have a significant impact on Taiwan’s relations with China. These deteriorated sharply in 1999 after Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui declared that the two countries should conduct their relations on a ‘special state-to-state basis’ – a move away from the previous formula that they constitute one temporarily divided state. China responded with a threat in February 2000 that it may launch military operations not only if Taiwan declares independence, but also if it delays too long in opening reunification talks. All three Taiwanese election candidates have stressed their desire for good relations with China. But Beijing risks becoming trapped by its own rhetoric into launching an offensive.
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