Systems approach to concentrated solar power (CSP) technology adoption in South Africa

Abstract

To meet its future energy demand, the government of South Africa set up an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the primary objective of determining its long-term electricity demand, and indicating how this demand should be met, in terms of generation type and timing. The IRP in 2010 presented the favoured energy generation techniques in SA, and it allocated 17 800 MW (42%) of the total energy mix in 2030 to renewable energy technologies (RETs). To achieve this target, the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) was launched and wind, solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) have been favoured mostly in the bids rolled out thus far. South Africa has been identified as one of the world’s best destinations for CSP because of the available solar resources, and a total of 600 MW of CSP had been purchased in the REIPPPP bids. However, the IRP update of 2016 threw CSP out of the future energy plans, when it gave no share to new electricity generation from it beyond 2030. This has created growing uncertainty of the future of CSP in South Africa. There is therefore an urgent need for collective efforts to present a broad and detailed value proposition in terms of present and prospects of CSP, and how it can be developed and deployed in the country to foster a lower tariff, encourage adoption, and ensure its return to the IRP. The study presented in this paper used a system dynamics approach to analyse the unique, critical and complex factors that affect the deployment of CSP in South Africa, as identified by concerned policy-makers, CSP experts, and existing studies. The result from this study shows that improved support for research is the most effective way to open new methods and ways in which the CSP technologies can be deployed, which will foster further CSP adoption in South Africa.