Systems Analysis of Hydrogen Transition with HyTrans

Abstract

The U.S. government is carefully considering the merits and the long-term prospects of hydrogen-fueled vehicles. The National Academy of Sciences has called for the careful application of systems analysis tools to structure the complex assessment required. Others, raising cautionary notes, question whether a consistent and plausible transition to hydrogen light-duty vehicles can be identified and whether that transition would, on balance, be environmentally preferred. Modeling the market transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles is an inherently complex process encompassing hydrogen production, delivery and retailing, vehicle manufacturing, and vehicle choice and use. This paper describes the integration of key technological and market factors in a dynamic transition model, HyTrans. The usefulness of HyTrans and its predictions depends on three key factors: the validity of the economic theories that underpin the model, the authenticity with which the key processes are represented, and the accuracy of specific parameter values used in the process representations. The paper summarizes the theoretical basis of HyTrans and, with sensitivity analysis, highlights the implications of key parameter specifications.