Systemic risk and financial contagion across top global energy companies

Abstract

This study seeks to explore the firm-level interconnections in the fast changing and integrating global energy market. We investigate the risk connectedness using a Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure within a network composed of the top 20 global energy companies recognized by the Platts global energy company rankings, using the Diebold and Yilmaz's (2014) approach. We manage to identify the top risk contributors to the system across companies, regions and industries, and construct a total systemic risk index (TSRI) of the energy system. We further investigate which risk factors play a role in driving the evolution of the TSRI, again from a network perspective. The results show that its dynamics are mainly driven by the US stock market volatility and investors' sentiment in the financial market over the full sample, while energy market risks and exchange rate movements exert significant but short-term influences.