System-Reliability Evaluation Based on Series Chain Model under Exponential Distribution

Abstract

In the general reliability analysis of series systems, the components which compose the system are assumed independent of each other. However, for most mechanical series systems, dependent failure is their common feature. If neglecting dependent failures where CCF(Common Cause Failure) plays an important role, it will lead to considerable errors or even misleading conclusions. In this article, the concept of series chain model is put forward in consideration of the CCF. By using the load—strength interference model, the order statistic theory and the knowledge of statistical distribution, the author develops a specific method to evaluate the reliability of series systems under exponential distribution. In the last part, by using Monte Carlo simulation, a group of specific data are given to verify the series chain model and compare the two different series system model. The results show that the reliability calculation under the classic series model is relatively conservative, while the reliability calculation under the series chain model is convincing. And thus, the series chain model is more applicable in engineering.