Abstract
The issue of information loss in the process of system reliability modeling through conventional load–strength interference analysis is discussed first, and the reason why it is impossible to construct dependent system reliability model simply by means of component reliability index is demonstrated. Then, an approach to modeling the reliability of dependent system with common cause failure (CCF) is presented. The approach is based on system-level load–strength interference analysis and a concept of ‘conditional failure probability of component’ as well. With the opinion that load randomness is the direct cause of failure dependence, a discrete type system reliability model is developed via the conditional component failure probability concept. At last, the model's capabilities to estimate system reliability with CCF effect and to predict high multiplicity failure probability based on low multiplicity failure event data are proved.
Published Version
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