System dynamics modeling of food-energy-water resource security in a megacity of China: Insights from the case of Beijing

Abstract

To ensure food, energy, and water (FEW) security in urban areas with high-density populations and concentrated social economic activities, it is imperative to build a better understanding of the dynamics of urban FEW systems. Using the STELLA platform, a system dynamics model named the BJ-FEW was developed by incorporating both the production and consumption sides of FEW systems into a single system-of-system model that considered the interactions between the FEW sectors within and beyond the urban economic system. This model was run for the megacity of Beijing over the period from 2000 to 2050 to simulate changes in the FEW demand and supply. Results showed that Beijing City will face an increasing challenge of FEW resource security with regard to the enlarging gap between the total demands and the local provision capability. Under the baseline scenario without policy intervention, the total demand for food, energy, and water in Beijing will incredibly reach 10 Mt, 129 Mtce, and 6.4 Bm3 in 2050. In such case, it was estimated that 75% of food, 88% of energy, and 48% of water will depend on trans-boundary imports. The implement of Xiong'an New Area Plan will be the indispensable development pathway to alleviate resource pressure in Beijing. The scenario analysis verified the positive effect of such program, which will improve the status of the resource system by reducing 15%, 29%, and 34% of the supply-demand gap for food, energy, and water. The results highlighted the necessity of a regional coordinated management strategy to build a more resilient FEW provision system.