System dynamics modeling in the legal arena: meeting the challenges of expert witness admissibility

Abstract

System dynamics models have been used in legal disputes since the late 1970s to prove and quantify damages. But such use of these models to support expert witness testimony presents challenges generally not encountered in non-dispute applications of system dynamics. Perhaps the most important such challenge is establishing admissibility of expert testimony supported by system dynamics models under the prevailing standards laid down by the US Supreme Court (Daubert standards) that lean heavily on the scientific method. Best-practice system dynamics work adheres to the scientific method and should prove admissible. Work that does not adhere to the scientific method or uses less stringent standards is vulnerable to being ruled inadmissible in such challenges. In particular, use of system dynamics work as a basis for opposing expert testimony must improve significantly, to meet the current admissibility standards. The stakes are high because current and future cases are likely to set precedents that will significantly affect future use of system dynamics in the legal arena, and because legal admissibility will doubtless impact the broader perception of the legitimacy of system dynamics analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.